Who will be the next head coach of the Ottawa Senators?

An important offseason looms for the Ottawa Senators management: they must hire the right head coach & make several moves to strengthen their roster. I take a look at some potential HC candidates.

The Ottawa Senators’ season is officially over. For the seventh consecutive season, for a myriad of reasons, the Senators will miss out on the NHL playoffs. 

This coming offseason is an extremely important one for Steve Staios and company if they hope to see more success on the ice next year and a potential playoff berth in the 2024-25 season.

The Senators must address numerous holes on their roster –particularly another right-handed defenseman, a goaltender, another versatile winger, and some bottom-six offensive depth. Ottawa will likely look to move on from a few key pieces on their current roster; I’ve heard rumors about Ottawa dealing Jacob Chycrun, Josh Norris, and Joonas Korpisalo this offseason. 

Next, the Senators must draft extremely well. Luckily, the 2024 class is a very talented draft class chock-full of talented forwards and defensemen. Seven of the top 15 prospects are quality defensemen like Artyom Levshunov, Zayne Parekh, and Anton Silayev among others and eight are elite goal-scoring and playmaking forwards, like Macklin Cellebrini, Ivan Devidov, and Cayden Lindstrom among numerous others. Another benefit for Ottawa is possessing a guaranteed top-10 overall draft pick (they currently have the seventh-best odds to win the draft lottery, they will likely move up a spot or two and can only fall one spot) and another late first-round pick. I wouldn’t be surprised if they draft a right-handed defenseman and a strong playmaking, puck moving forward with their two first-round picks.

Most importantly, Ottawa needs to ensure they hire the right head coach, someone with a plethora of NHL experience, who focuses on the details, is structured defensively, knows how to win, and implements an effective system both offensively and defensively.

Jacques Martin and Daniel Alfredsson were both hired as interim head coaches on December 6, 2023, to right the ship after another poor start to the season under DJ Smith. They were tasked with emphasizing a detail-oriented approach, improving the team’s defensive structure and attention to detail, and evaluating the current players to see if they could adapt to a different coaching style and therefore would be a part of the Senators’ plans for the future –as many Senators had spent their whole career under Smith as head coach. If a player proved to be unadaptable or simply wasn’t good enough, they would likely get traded in the summer. 

Martin and Alfredsson finished 26-26-4 in 56 games this season. While that isn’t a record a Stanley Cup contender would have, you can tell when you watch the Senators under Martin and Alfie that they both helped greatly improve the team. Ottawa was better defensively, focused more on the details, improved their poor starts to games, and heavily improved their abysmal second-period goal differential under the two interim head coaches; and, for a few stretches, both Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg played extremely well, although that elite goaltending play came way too little, too late for Ottawa.

In my opinion, the Senators have three favourites to be their next head coach: Craig Berube, Dean Evason, and Todd McLellan. There are also some other interesting candidates with less NHL experience like Don Granato and Jay Woodcroft. Then there is Jon Gruden, whose name has been floating around despite having no NHL experience. 

I consider Berube to be the best option and Gruden to be the worst option, merely because he has zero NHL head coaching experience, just like D.J. Smith and we all know how that worked out.

Let’s take an in-depth look at each of the coaching candidates and analyze if they’d be a good fit for Ottawa’s head coaching vacancy.

Craig Berube: 

Berube has a remarkable 206-132-44 record over six seasons as the St. Louis Blues’ head coach and is a Stanley Cup champion after he led the Blues on a remarkable run in 2019, climbing out of the league’s basement in January 2019 to winning the Stanely Cup nearly six months later after defeating the Boston Bruins in a tightly contested seven-game series.

The Blues were 15-18-4 on New Year’s Day and sat dead last in the NHL on January 3, 2019. They finished the season as the fifth seed in the Western Conference, with a record of 45-28-9, and were tied on 99 points with the Winnipeg Jets. The Blues rallied to win 30 of their remaining 45 games, including a franchise record 11 straight wins after the all-star break to set themselves up for a glorious playoff run, pun intended. In large part, their turnaround was credited to Berube, who emphasized a detail-oriented, strong, and physical defensive style of hockey. Combined with already possessing the offensive talent to light the lamp and an elite goalie in Jordan Binnington, the Blues were a force to be reckoned with.

Berube likes physical players who play a two-way game, focus on the details, are smart with the puck on their sticks, force turnovers, and grind the other team down with a strong forecheck. He would assist Ottawa’s skill-focused players in getting better defensively, focusing more on the important technical details, and playing an all-around 200-foot game more consistently, building on what Alfie and Martin have done this season. Berube has a straightforward style, can adapt and run many systems depending on the opponent he’s facing, and has a high hockey IQ. He also has a strong connection with Dave Poulin who is an executive in Ottawa’s management group. A pre-existing connection is critical when building a team culture.

The biggest factors working in Berube’s favour are that he focuses on the small, but important details that are the difference between winning and losing, he demands the best of his players every game and always holds them accountable, he emphasizes a defensive-minded play style while still enabling his players to create scoring chances with a strong forecheck, and his obsession with players being able to play a 200-foot game. These are all qualities that need to be instilled in Ottawa. What’s also super important is his 8+ years of NHL head coaching experience – including a two-year stint with the Philadelphia Flyers from 2013 to 2015, where he finished with a combined record of 75-55-28 and coached the team to a postseason appearance in the 2013-14 season after a poor start to the season– and the fact that he knows how to win in both the regular and postseason, which is very important to the Senators’ management. He’s my favourite to land the job.

Dean Evason: 

Evason, the former Minnesota Wild head coach doesn’t have a Stanley Cup championship like Berube does, however, he still has a plethora of NHL head coaching experience and employs an effective tactical style of hockey on both sides of the puck.

In 251 games at the helm in Minnesota, Evason amassed an impressive 147-77-27 record. In the 2021-22 season, he led Minnesota to a record of 53-22-7 (113 points), which was good enough to finish second in the Central Division. That season, he recorded franchise records in both wins and total points in a single regular season, with 53 and 113 respectively. The next season, Evason led the Wild to a 46-25-11 record and finished third in the Central. 

However, unlike Berube, Evason hasn’t found success in the postseason, finishing with an 8-15 record. He made the playoffs four times in the NHL and didn’t win a single round. In 12 seasons as a WHL and AHL head coach, he made 10 playoff appearances, only winning the first-round series once, in 2005 with Calgary.

But, Evason was a very successful coach in the regular season in the minors; he spent six years coaching in the WHL (for the Kamloops Blazers and Calgary Hitmen) and AHL (for the Milwaukee Admirals), winning over 200 games in both leagues. He became the second-most winningest coach in Admirals’ history over his tenure. 

Evason has always been an offensive-minded coach. When he was hired on February 14, 2020, he vowed to transform the defensive-minded team Bruce Boudreau left behind to have a more offensive-focused mentality. In Evason’s first 12 games before the league shut down due to COVID-19, the Wild shot 34 times per hour at 5-on-5 play, significantly better than 29.3 times per hour under Boudreau the previous campaign. Minnesota’s attack improved in terms of quality as well. The team created many more scoring chances in both even strength and powerplay situations and went from 2.21 expected goals per hour at 5-on-5 (27th in the NHL) to 2.51 per hour (15th). 

If those numbers were maintained over a full season, both would be the best marks in Wild history. And Evason opening up the offense didn’t sacrifice much in the way of defense, either. The Wild remained a top-10 defense while having arguably a top-five offense. His experience and ability to get the offense going without harming the defense would benefit the Senators greatly. He brings a palpable energy and passion behind the bench, cares greatly about the development of his players, holds his guys accountable when they make an error, and always wants to do whatever it takes to win. Those are important attributes for any head coach.

Todd McLellan:

McLellan, who served stints as the former San Jose Sharks, Edmonton Oilers, and Los Angeles Kings head coach, is another coach with loads of NHL experience. In fact, of all the candidates, McLellan has the most experience and he knows how to win in the playoffs. That is super important, but the Senators need to win more frequently in the regular season before the can qualify for and compete in the playoffs.

In his seven years with the Sharks, McLellan finished with an impressive 311-163-66 record in 540 games. He made the playoffs six times, including qualifying for the conference finals in consecutive years in 2009-10 and 2010-11. For three straight seasons from 2008 to 2011, McLellan led the Sharks to three Pacific Division titles, amassing over 50 wins and 110 points in two of those campaigns. McLellan’s Sharks were consistently in the top 10 rankings offensively, defensively, and on special teams. He had many talented players in San Jose, yet he managed them well, always got the best out of them, and held them all accountable. It led to a lot of success.

His stints with the Oilers and Kings were less impressive, but not bad by any stretch of the imagination.

In just over three full seasons behind the Oilers’ bench, he finished with a 123-119-24 record in 266 total games, yet only qualified for the playoffs once, losing in seven games in the second round against Anaheim. The other two seasons he finished 6th and 7th in the Pacific. He was dismissed 20 games into the 2018-19 season, after a lacklustre 9-10-1 start.

In just under five full seasons with the Kings, he posted a 164-130-44 record in 338 games. He made the playoffs twice –but lost both times in the first round– and improved the Kings drastically on offense and defense in his tenure, which is quite impressive considering the Kings were in a rebuilding stage in the first two and a half seasons under his leadership. 

In 1144 total games, McLellan finished with a total record of 598-412-134 record and posted a 42-46 playoff record in nine appearances. Reaching nearly 600 career wins is impressive for any head coach.

The experience, stability, strong hockey knowledge, and acute attention to detail McLellan brings to the locker room would improve the Senators’ offensively and defensively and on special teams. It would also improve the team’s mentality and teach them what it takes to win, building on what JM and Alfie did this season. He does have his shortcomings, but he would be a great HC.

Don Granato:

Granato has only had one head coaching gig in the NHL, coaching the Buffalo Sabres for the last four seasons. In 274 games behind the bench, Granato posted a record of 122-125-27 which isn’t bad for a first-time head coach, but unfortunately, he never finished higher than fifth place in the Atlantic Division and never led the Sabres to a postseason appearance.

To be fair to Granato, the Sabres are competing in the Atlantic Division, arguably the toughest and most competitive division in the NHL. The Sabres also only missed the playoffs by one point last season; that near-miss alone arguably saved Granato’s job at the end of last season.

Despite not having the most NHL experience and the most successful tenure behind the bench in Buffalo, he has proven himself in the minors, leading the Green Bay Gamblers of the USHL to the league finals and winning the Kelly Cup –awarded to the ECHL champions– with the Peoria Rivermen in 2000. From 2013 to 2016, he was head coach of the USA Hockey National Team Development Program, where he had an integral role in developing young talent hoping to play in the NHL one day. With Ottawa’s extremely young core, that player development experience could be very important for Ottawa’s success. The only question is, can he take what he learned in Buffalo and use that to improve his abilities as a head coach in Ottawa?

Jay Woodcroft: 

Similar to Granato, Woodcroft has only had one head coaching job in the NHL. He served as the bench boss in Edmonton for parts of three seasons. He was hired midway through the 2021-22 campaign and was fired 13 games into the 2023-24 season. 

In 133 games behind the bench, he finished 79-41-13 and in 2022-23, his only full season behind the bench, Woodcroft coached the Oilers to a 50-23-9 record (109 points), finishing second in the Pacific Division. 

Granato made two playoff appearances, losing to the Colorado Avalanche in the 2022 Western Conference Finals and losing to the Vegas Golden Knights in the 2023 second round. He finished 14-14 in the playoffs in his time coaching the Oilers. 

With all the talent Edmonton had on their roster, arguably Woodcroft could’ve been expected to go further in the playoffs, however, both teams that eliminated the Oilers went on to win the Stanley Cup that season. It’s tough to be mad about that. For a first-time head coach, two deep playoff runs is pretty good.

In November 2023, the Oilers fired Woodcroft after an abysmal 3-9-1 start. Arguably he was fired solely for the poor start to the 2023-24 season. But it appears some tactical issues led to his dismissal, or perhaps the Oilers considered themselves to be Stanley Cup favourites and Woodcroft couldn’t deliver despite the talented roster.

Woodcroft employed a 1-1-3 style system, which made it difficult for opposing forwards to enter the neutral zone, but required Edmonton’s defenders to recover the puck on dump-ins, a troublesome task when Oiler players tend to be more offensively minded rather than defensively engaged. In addition, Woodcroft too often relied on a long stretch pass through the neutral zone in his 1-1-3 system to commence offensive zone attacks, this pass was intercepted more often than not which strained his defense and led to several transition attacks for the opposition. There was never a forward at Edmonton’s own blue line open for an outlet pass to begin attacks.

I am still of the minority opinion that Woodcroft should’ve been given more time, at least until the end of this season to improve, but Edmonton felt that their time to compete is now and couldn’t waste another season of McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s prime. The real question is whether he can learn from his tactical and technical errors in Edmonton, improve them, and apply the improvements to his next job. That remains to be seen. He is a candidate with more questions than answers at this point.

Jon Gruden: 

Gruden is the current head coach of the AHL’s Toronto Marlies. He has had a considerable amount of success as a head coach in the minors, leading the Hamilton (now Brantford) Bulldogs to a 1st place finish in the Eastern Conference with a 43-18-7 record (93 points), conceding only 207 goals, the second-fewest total in the league while scoring 252 goals, fifth-most in the OHL.

Gruden also has experience as an NHL assistant coach with the New York Islanders from 2018 to 2022 and with the Boston Bruins during the 2022-23 season, where Boston recorded the best regular season record in NHL history. He also served as the assistant coach of the USA Hockey National Team Development Program, helping lead the USA to a gold medal at the 2014 World Junior Championships.

However, Gruden has zero NHL head coaching experience. 

That sounds a lot like an all-too-familiar ex-Ottawa Senators head coach D.J. Smith who had zero head coaching experience before joining the Senators. 

Although Smith had a ton of success in the OHL, serving as an assistant coach for the Windsor Spitfires from 2005-12 where he helped lead the team to two consecutive OHL championships and two consecutive Memorial Cups in 2009 and 2010 before serving as the head coach of the Oshawa Generals from 2012-15 where he coached the team to an OHL title and a Memorial Cup Championship in 2015, that winning mentality never translated into the NHL.

In four seasons as the assistant coach of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Smith helped lead the team to three regular seasons with 95 or more points and three playoff appearances, all of which ended in the first round. 

In 4.5 years at the helm in Ottawa, Smith failed to make the playoffs once, although to be fair, the Senators were in a rebuilding phase for much of Smith’s tenure. Smith’s tactics didn’t always work and were often too conservative, Smith never got the most out of his players and his players appeared to play lackadaisically and simply coast by under Smith. Worst of all, most players didn’t appear to show any accountability when they made mistakes or did not play well and Smith never called any of them out, which a good coach needs to do before correcting their mistakes and providing feedback on how to improve.

I’m not saying the same thing will happen again under Granato, but it is a strong possibility based on past precedent. The Senators cannot afford to be set back another five years due to the poor, non-winning mentality of a coach, to me no NHL experience is precisely why Granato should not be hired.

Conclusion: 

Please keep in mind that the list of candidates I predicted is not exhaustive. For example, Philadelphia Flyers associate coach Brad Shaw is believed to be a person of interest and if the Bruins get bounced in round one again, it is possible Jim Montgomery could be fired. He’d be a great fit in Ottawa. The Senators may even look at Lindy Ruff, Gerrard Gallant, or even two-time Stanley Cup Champion Mike Sullivan who would bring much-needed energy and accountability to Ottawa’s bench. Martin was Sullivan’s assistant coach during the Penguins’ two Stanley Cup runs in 2016 and 2017 too. Sullivan knows how to win and develop players, Ottawa badly needs that at this stage in their rebuild/re-tool.

As Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reported, “The Calgary Flames interviewed 15-20 candidates for their GM position last summer before giving Craig Conroy the job full-time (because) they wanted to get a good idea what people thought of their team, how they evaluated the talent and where changes need to be made.” The more voices the Senators hear, the better idea they’ll get of who will be their best candidate for the head coaching vacancy.

The Senators must widen their net as far as possible in their search for their newest head coach. Owner Michael Andlauer, GM Steve Staios, senior vice-president Dave Poulin, and associate GM Ryan Bowness have a long to-do list this summer: hiring the right head coach is priority number one, and adding quality pieces to their roster via the draft and free agency while also moving on from players they deem not part of the future is priority number two.

It is paramount the Senators’ management group hires the right head coach, or else the Senators will continue to be trapped in hockey purgatory –not being good enough to make the playoffs, but not being bad enough to earn the #1 pick– that trend cannot continue for everyone’s sake: players, management and Ottawa’s devoted fans.